Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, Tías
The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for San Bartolomé. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Lanzarote (1,782) and San Bartolomé (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lanzarote have 2 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats; San Bartolomé have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tamaraceite(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Herbania(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Tenerife C(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lanzarote(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Arucas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lanzarote win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 San Bartolomé win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | San Bartolomé 1-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Lanzarote 3-0 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 1, 2025 | San Bartolomé 1-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Lanzarote 0-0 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 10, 2024 | San Bartolomé 1-2 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Lanzarote 2-0 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: San Bartolomé vs Lanzarote on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; San Bartolomé score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanzarote | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| San Bartolomé | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lanzarote sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (48 points from 34 matches) and San Bartolomé sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 48 |
| 14 | San Bartolomé | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30 | 55 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé?
- The Footlab model makes Lanzarote the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for San Bartolomé.
- Where and when is Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé played?
- Lanzarote vs San Bartolomé is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Francisco Bermúdez Hernández, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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