Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Anexo Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
The Footlab model makes Las Palmas III the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Lanzarote. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Las Palmas III (1,815) and Lanzarote (1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Las Palmas III have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lanzarote have 2, 9 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | San Miguel(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Paso(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tenisca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Bartolomé(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tamaraceite(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Herbania(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Las Palmas III win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lanzarote win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Las Palmas III 2-0 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Lanzarote 1-1 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Jan 16, 2022 | Lanzarote 1-0 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Las Palmas III 3-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2021 | Lanzarote 1-0 Las Palmas III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Mar 24, 2021 | Las Palmas III 1-2 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Las Palmas III score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas III | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Lanzarote | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Las Palmas III sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (54 points from 34 matches) and Lanzarote sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Las Palmas III | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 58 | 42 | 54 |
| 9 | Lanzarote | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote?
- The Footlab model makes Las Palmas III the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Lanzarote.
- Where and when is Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote played?
- Las Palmas III vs Lanzarote is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Anexo Gran Canaria, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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