Le Havre vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 26Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Océane, Le Havre
The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Le Havre (1,883) and Estac Troyes (1,969).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Havre have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Estac Troyes have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Le Havre win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Estac Troyes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2022 | Le Havre 0-3 Estac Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 20, 2022 | Estac Troyes 3-0 Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2021 | Le Havre 3-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 24, 2020 | Estac Troyes 2-0 Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 27, 2020 | Le Havre 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 9, 2019 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Le Havre vs Estac Troyes on Jul 20, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Havre sit 14th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 13th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes played?
- Le Havre vs Estac Troyes is played on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Océane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.