Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Le Messager Ngozi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Le Messager Ngozi (1,528) and Rukinzo (1,618).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Rukinzo have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Muzinga(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Royal Vision(home) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bumamuru(away) | 4-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ngozi City(home) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Le Messager Ngozi win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Rukinzo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Rukinzo 1-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-1 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-2 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Rukinzo 1-2 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-2 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Rukinzo 2-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Rukinzo vs Le Messager Ngozi on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rukinzo score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Rukinzo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 1st in Ligue A (6 points from 2 matches) and Rukinzo sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Messager Ngozi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Rukinzo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo?
- The Footlab model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Le Messager Ngozi.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.