Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Urukundo, Mwumba
The Footlab AI model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Le Messager Ngozi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rukinzo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,566 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Le Messager Ngozi (1,501) and Rukinzo (1,594).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Le Messager Ngozi
4-3-3- 7A. Hakizimana
- 9A. Nibikora
- 16S. Saidi
- 15A. Eza
- 10I. Nizigiyimana
- 24A. Muderi
- 17C. Urasenga
- 3R. Mvuyekure
- 14O. Dushime
- 20J. Kashindi
- 26A. Hakizimana
Rukinzo
4-3-3- 25Issa Bigirimana
- 5A. Habimana
- 10D. Maniriho
- 11B. Rukundo
- 8D. Ntibazonkiza
- 28J. Petit Nzeyimana
- 24D. Nzeyimana
- 2A. Nzigiyimana
- 15P. Mutimana
- 19A. Icoyitungiye
- 23Y. Rugumandiye
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 02:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Messager Ngozi have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Rukinzo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Vital'O(away) | 0-2 | Ligue A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(away) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Musongati(away) | 1-3 | Ligue A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Panthere Noir(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 2-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Royal Vision(away) | 0-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aigle Noir(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Kayanza United(away) | 3-1 | Ligue A |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Young Star(home) | 7-0 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Le Messager Ngozi win, 0 draws, 5 Rukinzo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Rukinzo 1-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 0-1 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-2 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Rukinzo 1-2 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Le Messager Ngozi 1-2 Rukinzo | Ligue A |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Rukinzo 2-0 Le Messager Ngozi | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Rukinzo vs Le Messager Ngozi on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Messager Ngozi score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rukinzo score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Messager Ngozi | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Rukinzo | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Messager Ngozi sit 5th in Ligue A (10 points from 5 matches) and Rukinzo sit 9th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Le Messager Ngozi | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Rukinzo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
A question about Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rukinzo the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Le Messager Ngozi.
- Where and when is Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo played?
- Le Messager Ngozi vs Rukinzo is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Urukundo, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.