Musongati vs Aigle Noir: prediction and stats
Ligue ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Ingoma, Gitega
The Footlab model makes Musongati the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Aigle Noir. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Musongati vs Aigle Noir?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Musongati (1,654) and Aigle Noir (1,735).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Musongati have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Aigle Noir have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rukinzo(home) | 0-0 | Ligue A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Royal Vision(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Bumamuru(home) | 3-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ngozi City(away) | 4-2 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Inter Star(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flambeau du Centre(away) | 1-1 | Ligue A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Olympic Star(home) | 3-1 | Ligue A |
| May 9, 2026 | Garage Express(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Royal Vision(away) | 1-2 | Ligue A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Dynamik(home) | 1-0 | Ligue A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Musongati win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Aigle Noir win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Musongati 0-0 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Aigle Noir 1-1 Musongati | Ligue A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Musongati 0-2 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Aigle Noir 2-0 Musongati | Ligue A |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Aigle Noir 1-0 Musongati | Ligue A |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Musongati 0-1 Aigle Noir | Ligue A |
Last archived meeting: Musongati vs Aigle Noir on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Musongati score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aigle Noir score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musongati | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Aigle Noir | 1.6 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Musongati sit 13th in Ligue A (1 points from 2 matches) and Aigle Noir sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aigle Noir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Musongati | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Musongati vs Aigle Noir?
- The Footlab model makes Musongati the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Aigle Noir.
- Where and when is Musongati vs Aigle Noir played?
- Musongati vs Aigle Noir is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Ingoma, in the Ligue A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.