AC Milan vs AS Roma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AS Roma. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs AS Roma?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate AC Milan (2,192) and AS Roma (2,220).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AC Milan vs AS Roma
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AC Milan
3-4-3- 12A. Rabiot
- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 11C. Pulišić
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 14L. Modrić
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
AS Roma
3-4-2-1- 14D. Malen
- 15M. de Roon
- 18M. Soulé
- 21P. Dybala
- 77E. Lulli
- 17M. Koné
- 43Wesley
- 5E. Ndicka
- 26L. Balerdi
- 22Hermoso
- 95P. Gollini
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:14 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; AS Roma have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 3-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Como(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AC Milan wins, 2 draws, 2 AS Roma wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AC Milan 1-0 AS Roma | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | AS Roma 3-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AC Milan 3-1 AS Roma | Coppa Italia |
| Dec 29, 2024 | AC Milan 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| May 31, 2024 | AS Roma 5-2 AC Milan | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AS Roma score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| AS Roma | 2.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 4th in Serie A (15 points from 7 matches) and AS Roma sit 3rd (17 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
A question about AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AS Roma.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs AS Roma played?
- AC Milan vs AS Roma is played on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.