Leeds vs Hull City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Hull City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Hull City?
Leeds starts as the favourite with a 230-point Elo edge (2,169 vs 1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Hull City have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Leeds win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Hull City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | Hull City 3-3 Leeds | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Leeds 2-0 Hull City | Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Leeds 3-1 Hull City | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Hull City 0-0 Leeds | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Leeds 1-1 Hull City | League Cup |
| Feb 29, 2020 | Hull City 0-4 Leeds | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Hull City score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Hull City | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 8th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Hull City sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Hull City?
- The Footlab model makes Leeds the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Hull City played?
- Leeds vs Hull City is played on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.