Manchester City vs Everton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Everton. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,523 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Everton?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (2,357 vs 2,129).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Everton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 10R. Cherki
- 45A. Khusanov
- 3Rúben Dias
- 27Matheus Nunes
- 6M. Guéhi
- 1G. Donnarumma
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 37J. Garner
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 45H. Armstrong
- 34M. Röhl
- 19Tyrique George
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 16V. Mykolenko
- 15J. O'Brien
- 4J. Branthwaite
- 1J. Pickford
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 06:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Everton have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester City wins, 2 draws, 0 Everton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Everton 3-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Everton 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Manchester City 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Everton 1-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Everton vs Manchester City on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Everton score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Everton | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 2nd in Premier League (21 points from 9 matches) and Everton sit 7th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Everton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
A question about Manchester City vs Everton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Everton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Everton.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Everton played?
- Manchester City vs Everton is played on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.