Manchester City vs Everton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Everton. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Everton?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 258-point Elo edge (2,368 vs 2,110).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Everton have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lille(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester City win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Everton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Everton 3-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Everton 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Manchester City 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Everton 1-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Everton vs Manchester City on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Everton score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Everton | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 7th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Everton sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Everton?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester City the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Everton.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Everton played?
- Manchester City vs Everton is played on March 3, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.