Leicester vs Notts County: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 34Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)King Power Stadium, Leicester, Leicestershire
The Footlab model makes Leicester the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Notts County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leicester vs Notts County?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Leicester (1,837) and Notts County (1,830).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leicester have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Notts County have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Notts County(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Leicester win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Notts County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Notts County 1-1 Leicester | League One |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Leicester 1-2 Notts County | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Notts County vs Leicester on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leicester score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leicester sit 18th in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Notts County sit 15th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Leicester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leicester vs Notts County?
- The Footlab model makes Leicester the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Leicester vs Notts County played?
- Leicester vs Notts County is played on March 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at King Power Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.