Leiston vs Bury Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - Southern CentralRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victory Road, Leiston, Suffolk
The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Leiston. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leiston vs Bury Town?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Leiston (1,790) and Bury Town (1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leiston have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Bury Town have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stourbridge(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rushall Olympic(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bishop's Stortford(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Anstey Nomads(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gorleston(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leamington(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stratford Town(away) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Halesowen Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Sudbury(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Leiston win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Bury Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Leiston 1-3 Bury Town | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Bury Town 1-1 Leiston | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Bury Town 1-0 Leiston | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Leiston score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bury Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiston | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Bury Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leiston sit 8th in Non League Premier - Southern Central (4 points from 3 matches) and Bury Town sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leiston vs Bury Town?
- The Footlab model makes Bury Town the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Leiston.
- Where and when is Leiston vs Bury Town played?
- Leiston vs Bury Town is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Road, in the Non League Premier - Southern Central.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 2, 2027Hitchin TownvsBishop's Stortford
- Jan 2, 2027StamfordvsKettering Town
- Jan 2, 2027Halesowen TownvsRedditch United
- Jan 2, 2027AlvechurchvsRushall Olympic
- Jan 2, 2027Banbury UnitedvsAnstey Nomads
- Jan 2, 2027Bromsgrove SportingvsWorcester City
- Jan 2, 2027Peterborough SportsvsNeedham Market
- Jan 2, 2027Stratford TownvsRacing Club Warwick