Leones del Norte vs Orense SC: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra, Ibarra
The Footlab model makes Leones del Norte the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Orense SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Orense SC?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Leones del Norte (1,714) and Orense SC (1,684).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones del Norte have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Orense SC have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manta FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aucas(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barcelona SC(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 30, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-6 | Copa Ecuador |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Barcelona SC(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(home) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Delfin SC(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Leones del Norte win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Orense SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Orense SC 2-0 Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Leones del Norte 1-0 Orense SC | Copa Ecuador |
Last archived meeting: Orense SC vs Leones del Norte on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leones del Norte score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Orense SC score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Orense SC | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leones del Norte sit 7th in Liga Pro (35 points from 26 matches) and Orense SC sit 12th (30 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leones del Norte | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 12 | Orense SC | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 39 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leones del Norte vs Orense SC?
- The Footlab model makes Leones del Norte the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Orense SC.
- Where and when is Leones del Norte vs Orense SC played?
- Leones del Norte vs Orense SC is played on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.