Libertad vs Emelec: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
The Footlab model makes Libertad the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Emelec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Libertad vs Emelec?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Libertad (1,734) and Emelec (1,702).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertad have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Emelec have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orense SC(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aucas(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Libertad win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Emelec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Emelec 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Libertad 1-2 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Emelec 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Libertad 2-1 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Emelec 0-0 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Libertad 0-0 Emelec | Liga Pro |
How many goals should we expect?
Libertad score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Emelec score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Emelec | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Libertad sit 8th in Liga Pro (34 points from 25 matches) and Emelec sit 13th (29 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Libertad | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
| 13 | Emelec | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Libertad vs Emelec?
- The Footlab model makes Libertad the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Emelec.
- Where and when is Libertad vs Emelec played?
- Libertad vs Emelec is played on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.