Universidad Catolica vs Aucas: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
The Footlab model makes Universidad Catolica the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Aucas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Universidad Catolica (1,829) and Aucas (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Universidad Catolica have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Aucas have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manta FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Macara(away) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 5-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Delfin SC(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 12, 2026 | La Unión(away) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Emelec(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Universidad Catolica win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Aucas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Aucas 2-1 Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Universidad Catolica 6-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Aucas 2-1 Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Universidad Catolica 0-0 Aucas | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Universidad Catolica 3-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| May 19, 2024 | Aucas 2-2 Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Aucas vs Universidad Catolica on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Universidad Catolica score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aucas score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Aucas | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Universidad Catolica sit 3rd in Liga Pro (43 points from 26 matches) and Aucas sit 2nd (44 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aucas | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 23 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Universidad Catolica vs Aucas?
- The Footlab model makes Universidad Catolica the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Aucas.
- Where and when is Universidad Catolica vs Aucas played?
- Universidad Catolica vs Aucas is played on September 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.