Leones FC vs Patriotas: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 13Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alberto Grisales, Rionegro, Antioquia
The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Leones FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leones FC vs Patriotas?
Patriotas starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,556 vs 1,430).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Patriotas have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Cartagena(home) | 1-6 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Quindio(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Llaneros(away) | 1-3 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leones FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Patriotas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Patriotas 1-0 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Leones FC 0-1 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Patriotas 3-1 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Patriotas 1-3 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Mar 6, 2023 | Leones FC 0-0 Patriotas | Primera B |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Patriotas 2-1 Leones FC | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Patriotas vs Leones FC on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leones FC score 0.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Patriotas score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones FC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Patriotas | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leones FC sit 14th in Primera B (10 points from 15 matches) and Patriotas sit 11th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patriotas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Leones FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Leones FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 10 | Patriotas | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 18 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leones FC vs Patriotas?
- The Footlab model makes Patriotas the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Leones FC.
- Where and when is Leones FC vs Patriotas played?
- Leones FC vs Patriotas is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alberto Grisales, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.