Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 13Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Ind. Yumbo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Union Magdalena (1,635) and Ind. Yumbo (1,578).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Magdalena have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ind. Yumbo have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Envigado(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Union Magdalena win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Ind. Yumbo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo 0-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Ind. Yumbo vs Union Magdalena on Mar 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ind. Yumbo score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Ind. Yumbo | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Magdalena sit 3rd in Primera B (32 points from 15 matches) and Ind. Yumbo sit 9th (19 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 5 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 26 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 53%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for Ind. Yumbo.
- Where and when is Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo played?
- Union Magdalena vs Ind. Yumbo is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sierra Nevada, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.