Envigado vs Real Santander: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 13Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado
The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 74%, against 19% for a draw and 7% for Real Santander. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Envigado vs Real Santander?
Envigado is a heavy favourite: 1,640 Elo points against 1,339 — a 301-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Envigado have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Real Santander have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Envigado win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Real Santander win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Real Santander 1-3 Envigado | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Santander vs Envigado on Mar 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Santander score 0.8 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Santander | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Envigado sit 2nd in Primera B (33 points from 17 matches) and Real Santander sit 16th (7 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Envigado | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Real Santander | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 11 | Envigado | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 34 | 13 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Envigado vs Real Santander?
- The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 74%, against 19% for a draw and 7% for Real Santander.
- Where and when is Envigado vs Real Santander played?
- Envigado vs Real Santander is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.