Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:45 AM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for CA La Paz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Leones Negros UDG (1,869) and CA La Paz (1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones Negros UDG have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; CA La Paz have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Durango(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 5-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Durango(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leones Negros UDG win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 CA La Paz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | CA La Paz 3-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Leones Negros UDG 2-3 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 29, 2025 | CA La Paz 3-1 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Leones Negros UDG 3-0 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| May 6, 2024 | Leones Negros UDG 3-1 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| May 3, 2024 | CA La Paz 1-1 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: CA La Paz vs Leones Negros UDG on Mar 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leones Negros UDG score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; CA La Paz score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| CA La Paz | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leones Negros UDG sit 5th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and CA La Paz sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Leones Negros UDG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | CA La Paz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | CA La Paz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
- The Footlab model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 49%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for CA La Paz.
- Where and when is Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz played?
- Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:45 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.