Venados FC vs Tepatitlán: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Tepatitlán. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Venados FC vs Tepatitlán?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Venados FC (1,887) and Tepatitlán (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Venados FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tepatitlán have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 0-5 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Durango(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Venados FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tepatitlán win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán 2-0 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Venados FC 1-0 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Tepatitlán 2-2 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Venados FC 1-1 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Tepatitlán 0-5 Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Venados FC 5-1 Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Tepatitlán vs Venados FC on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Venados FC score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tepatitlán score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Tepatitlán | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Venados FC sit 2nd in Liga de Expansión MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Tepatitlán sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Venados FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 15 | Tepatitlán | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Venados FC vs Tepatitlán?
- The Footlab model makes Venados FC the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Tepatitlán.
- Where and when is Venados FC vs Tepatitlán played?
- Venados FC vs Tepatitlán is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.