Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Dorados. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
Leones Negros UDG starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,728).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones Negros UDG have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Dorados have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Durango(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Venados FC(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Leones Negros UDG win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Dorados win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Dorados 1-1 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Leones Negros UDG 2-0 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Leones Negros UDG 4-0 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Dorados 0-1 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 21, 2024 | Dorados 1-2 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Leones Negros UDG 4-0 Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Dorados vs Leones Negros UDG on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leones Negros UDG score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dorados score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Dorados | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leones Negros UDG sit 5th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Dorados sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Leones Negros UDG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Dorados | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Dorados | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados?
- The Footlab model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Dorados.
- Where and when is Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados played?
- Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.