Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Mineros de Zacatecas. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (2,008 vs 1,878).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mineros de Zacatecas have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Piratas(home) | 0-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CA La Paz(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Leon(away) | 4-7 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Durango win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Mineros de Zacatecas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2023 | Mineros de Zacatecas 1-2 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Durango 4-1 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Durango on Jan 28, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mineros de Zacatecas score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 2.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 6th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Mineros de Zacatecas sit 8th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| 6 | Durango | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Durango | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Mineros de Zacatecas.
- Where and when is Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas played?
- Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Zarco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.