Monarcas vs Tlaxcala: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, Morelia
The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tlaxcala. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
Monarcas starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monarcas have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Tlaxcala have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 4-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 26, 2026 | CA La Paz(home) | 4-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tepatitlán(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Monarcas win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tlaxcala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Monarcas 0-0 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Tlaxcala 0-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Tlaxcala 1-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Monarcas 2-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Monarcas 3-1 Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Tlaxcala 2-3 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Monarcas score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tlaxcala score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monarcas | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Tlaxcala | 1.2 | 1.6 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monarcas sit 4th in Liga de Expansión MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Tlaxcala sit 15th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Monarcas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Monarcas | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 | Tlaxcala | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monarcas vs Tlaxcala?
- The Footlab model makes Monarcas the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tlaxcala.
- Where and when is Monarcas vs Tlaxcala played?
- Monarcas vs Tlaxcala is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.