Match

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas: prediction and stats

Liga de Expansión MXSemi-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

Leones Negros UDGMonarcas

The Footlab AI model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Monarcas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leones Negros UDG wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,160 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Leones Negros UDG (1,916) and Monarcas (1,913).

48%24%28%
Leones Negros UDG winDrawMonarcas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Leones Negros UDG

4-4-2
  1. 9L. Razo
  2. 20Óscar Gil
  1. 34S. Hernández
  2. 6J. Marchand
  3. 28A. Bravo
  4. 15A. Carreón
  1. 24J. Agüayo
  2. 161J. Escalante
  3. 21O. González
  4. 5U. Torres
  1. 1O. Cantú

Monarcas

4-2-3-1
  1. 9R. del Campo
  1. 8J. Martínez
  2. 20D. Aguilar
  3. 6D. de Buen
  4. 13A. Andrade
  5. 19M. Rodríguez
  1. 4D. Zamora
  2. 5J. Van Rankin
  3. 16R. Sandoval
  4. 18G. Martínez
  1. 22R. Pasquel

Computed on November 9, 2026 at 03:39 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones Negros UDG have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Monarcas have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Leones Negros UDG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Durango(home)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 6, 2026Durango(away)0-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 1, 2026Tepatitlán(home)3-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 25, 2026Mineros de Zacatecas(away)2-0Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 18, 2026Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home)1-2Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Venados FC(home)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 4, 2026Venados FC(away)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 1, 2026Durango(away)1-3Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 25, 2026Tapatío(away)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 18, 2026CDS Tampico Madero(home)1-2Liga de Expansión MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Leones Negros UDG wins, 0 draws, 2 Monarcas wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
Apr 5, 2026Leones Negros UDG 2-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
Oct 26, 2025Monarcas 2-3 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
May 11, 2025Leones Negros UDG 2-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
May 4, 2025Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
Mar 21, 2025Leones Negros UDG 2-1 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX

Last archived meeting: Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG on Sep 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Leones Negros UDG score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Monarcas score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Leones Negros UDG2.01.3211/1510/15
Monarcas1.71.2312/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd in Liga de Expansión MX (30 points from 15 matches) and Monarcas sit 3rd (26 points from 15 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Leones Negros UDG15933342030
3Monarcas15825261926

A question about Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
The Footlab AI model makes Leones Negros UDG the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Monarcas.
Where and when is Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas played?
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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