Match

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction and stats

Liga de Expansión MXSemi-finalsKick-off on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, Morelia

MonarcasLeones Negros UDG

The Footlab AI model makes Monarcas the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Leones Negros UDG. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monarcas wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,160 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Monarcas (1,913) and Leones Negros UDG (1,916).

48%24%28%
Monarcas winDrawLeones Negros UDG win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Monarcas

4-2-3-1
  1. 9R. del Campo
  1. 8J. Martínez
  2. 20D. Aguilar
  3. 6D. de Buen
  4. 13A. Andrade
  5. 19M. Rodríguez
  1. 4D. Zamora
  2. 5J. Van Rankin
  3. 16R. Sandoval
  4. 18G. Martínez
  1. 22R. Pasquel

Leones Negros UDG

4-4-2
  1. 9L. Razo
  2. 20Óscar Gil
  1. 34S. Hernández
  2. 6J. Marchand
  3. 28A. Bravo
  4. 15A. Carreón
  1. 24J. Agüayo
  2. 161J. Escalante
  3. 21O. González
  4. 5U. Torres
  1. 1O. Cantú

Computed on November 9, 2026 at 03:16 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monarcas have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Leones Negros UDG have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Monarcas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Venados FC(home)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 4, 2026Venados FC(away)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 1, 2026Durango(away)1-3Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 25, 2026Tapatío(away)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 18, 2026CDS Tampico Madero(home)1-2Liga de Expansión MX
Leones Negros UDG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Durango(home)2-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 6, 2026Durango(away)0-1Liga de Expansión MX
Nov 1, 2026Tepatitlán(home)3-1Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 25, 2026Mineros de Zacatecas(away)2-0Liga de Expansión MX
Oct 18, 2026Alebrijes de Oaxaca(home)1-2Liga de Expansión MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Monarcas wins, 0 draws, 4 Leones Negros UDG wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
Apr 5, 2026Leones Negros UDG 2-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
Oct 26, 2025Monarcas 2-3 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
May 11, 2025Leones Negros UDG 2-0 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX
May 4, 2025Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
Mar 21, 2025Leones Negros UDG 2-1 MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX

Last archived meeting: Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG on Sep 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Monarcas score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Leones Negros UDG score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Monarcas1.71.2312/1510/15
Leones Negros UDG2.01.3211/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Monarcas sit 3rd in Liga de Expansión MX (26 points from 15 matches) and Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd (30 points from 15 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Leones Negros UDG15933342030
3Monarcas15825261926

A question about Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
The Footlab AI model makes Monarcas the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Leones Negros UDG.
Where and when is Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG played?
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG is played on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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