Piratas vs CA La Paz: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXSemi-finalsKick-off on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for CA La Paz. The most likely score is 1-1. If Piratas wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,160 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Piratas vs CA La Paz?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Piratas (1,881) and CA La Paz (1,927).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Piratas vs CA La Paz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Piratas
4-3-3- 8B. Figueroa
- 28J. Gamboa
- 25Daniel Lajud
- 4A. Lopez
- 23J. Venegas
- 7O. Soto
- 3K. Jaime
- 6D. Cruz
- 14Rolando González
- 22U. García
- 20H. Hernández
CA La Paz
3-4-2-1- 10M. Barragán
- 77J. Alonzo
- 30Á. Robles
- 20M. García
- 25F. Illescas
- 5E. Torres
- 9Jordi Ferrer
- 21C. Robles
- 28U. Zurita
- 15H. Torres
- 33G. Alcalá
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 03:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Piratas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; CA La Paz have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2026 | Cancún(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 6, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Tapatío(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 5-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tepatitlán(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Tlaxcala(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Dorados(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 25, 2026 | CDS Tampico Madero(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Piratas wins, 0 draws, 1 CA La Paz win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | CA La Paz 2-0 Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Piratas score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; CA La Paz score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| CA La Paz | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Piratas sit 4th in Liga de Expansión MX (25 points from 15 matches) and CA La Paz sit 1st (30 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 25 |
A question about Piratas vs CA La Paz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Piratas vs CA La Paz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Piratas the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for CA La Paz.
- Where and when is Piratas vs CA La Paz played?
- Piratas vs CA La Paz is played on November 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.