Lewes vs Aveley: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - IsthmianRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Dripping Pan, Lewes, East Sussex
The Footlab model makes Aveley the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Lewes. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lewes vs Aveley?
Aveley starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,878 vs 1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lewes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Aveley have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Whyteleafe(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | St Albans City(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Whitehawk(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Enfield Town(home) | 0-4 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Chatham Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Three Bridges(away) | 5-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitehawk(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Maldon & Tiptree(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eastbourne Borough(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Southend(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Lewes win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Aveley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lewes 1-6 Aveley | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Aveley 3-0 Lewes | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Aveley 2-0 Lewes | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Nov 1, 2022 | Lewes 1-1 Aveley | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 3, 2021 | Aveley 2-4 Lewes | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Lewes score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aveley score 2.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewes | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Aveley | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lewes sit 9th in Non League Premier - Isthmian (7 points from 4 matches) and Aveley sit 6th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aveley | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Lewes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lewes vs Aveley?
- The Footlab model makes Aveley the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Lewes.
- Where and when is Lewes vs Aveley played?
- Lewes vs Aveley is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Dripping Pan, in the Non League Premier - Isthmian.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026DartfordvsBurgess Hill Town
- Dec 12, 2026LeatherheadvsEastbourne Borough
- Dec 12, 2026WhitehawkvsEnfield Town
- Dec 12, 2026Brentwood TownvsCarshalton Athletic
- Dec 12, 2026RamsgatevsWelling United
- Dec 12, 2026Three BridgesvsDulwich Hamlet
- Dec 12, 2026CheshuntvsWhyteleafe
- Dec 12, 2026Cray WanderersvsMaldon & Tiptree