Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Lexington SC Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for El Paso Locomotive. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Lexington (1,765) and El Paso Locomotive (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lexington have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; El Paso Locomotive have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Lexington win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 El Paso Locomotive win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive 1-4 Lexington | USL Championship |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Lexington 1-2 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Apr 6, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Lexington | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: El Paso Locomotive vs Lexington on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; El Paso Locomotive score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lexington sit 8th in USL Championship (15 points from 12 matches) and El Paso Locomotive sit 7th (16 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
| 7 | Lexington | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | Lexington | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?
- The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for El Paso Locomotive.
- Where and when is Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive played?
- Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive is played on October 3, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lexington SC Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots