Libertad vs Macara: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
The Footlab model makes Macara the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Libertad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Libertad vs Macara?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Libertad (1,734) and Macara (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Libertad have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Macara have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orense SC(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barcelona SC(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Libertad win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Macara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Macara 3-0 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Macara 1-1 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| May 25, 2025 | Libertad 0-1 Macara | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Libertad 0-1 Macara | Liga Pro |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Macara 3-0 Libertad | Liga Pro |
How many goals should we expect?
Libertad score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Macara score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Macara | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Libertad sit 8th in Liga Pro (34 points from 25 matches) and Macara sit 4th (42 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Macara | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 25 | 42 |
| 8 | Libertad | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Libertad vs Macara?
- The Footlab model makes Macara the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Libertad.
- Where and when is Libertad vs Macara played?
- Libertad vs Macara is played on August 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.