Aucas vs Libertad: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 27Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Libertad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aucas vs Libertad?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Aucas (1,765) and Libertad (1,734).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aucas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Libertad have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Delfin SC(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 0-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 12, 2026 | La Unión(away) | 1-1 | Copa Ecuador |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leones del Norte(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Emelec(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orense SC(home) | 3-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aucas win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Libertad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Libertad 3-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Libertad 3-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| May 6, 2025 | Aucas 2-0 Libertad | Liga Pro |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Libertad 1-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Aucas 0-1 Libertad | Copa Ecuador |
| May 5, 2024 | Aucas 2-0 Libertad | Liga Pro |
How many goals should we expect?
Aucas score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Libertad score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 1.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Libertad | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aucas sit 2nd in Liga Pro (44 points from 26 matches) and Libertad sit 8th (34 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aucas | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 26 | 44 |
| 8 | Libertad | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aucas vs Libertad?
- The Footlab model makes Aucas the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Libertad.
- Where and when is Aucas vs Libertad played?
- Aucas vs Libertad is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.