Liège vs Dender: prediction and stats
Challenger Pro LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stade de Rocourt, Liège
The Footlab model makes Liège the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Dender. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liège vs Dender?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Liège (1,818) and Dender (1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liège have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Dender have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | KRC Genk II(away) | 3-2 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Francs Borains(home) | 1-2 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Patro Eisden(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Waremme(away) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aywaille(away) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 2-0 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting Hasselt(away) | 0-1 | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oudenaarde(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Lommel United(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Liège win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Dender win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2023 | Dender 0-0 Liège | Challenger Pro League |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Liège 0-1 Dender | Challenger Pro League |
| May 22, 2022 | Liège 1-0 Dender | First Amateur Division |
| May 11, 2022 | Dender 2-0 Liège | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 27, 2022 | Liège 3-0 Dender | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Dender 0-0 Liège | First Amateur Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Liège score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Dender score 0.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liège | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Dender | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liège sit 11th in Challenger Pro League (0 points from 1 matches) and Dender sit 6th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dender | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Liège | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liège vs Dender?
- The Footlab model makes Liège the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Dender.
- Where and when is Liège vs Dender played?
- Liège vs Dender is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de Rocourt, in the Challenger Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.