Lille vs Lorient: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 21Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lille vs Lorient?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Lille (2,104) and Lorient (2,010).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lille have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Lorient have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamburger SV(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OH Leuven(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nice(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lille win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lorient win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Lille 1-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Lorient 1-7 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Lille 3-0 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Lorient 4-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Lille 3-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Lorient 2-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lille score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lorient | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lille sit 3rd in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Lorient sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lille vs Lorient?
- The Footlab model makes Lille the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Lille vs Lorient played?
- Lille vs Lorient is played on February 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.