Lincoln vs Wrexham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Lincoln the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Wrexham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lincoln vs Wrexham?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Lincoln (1,975) and Wrexham (1,977).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lincoln have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Wrexham have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barnsley(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Watford(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lincoln win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Wrexham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2025 | Lincoln 0-2 Wrexham | League One |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Wrexham 1-0 Lincoln | League One |
| Nov 29, 2016 | Lincoln 1-0 Wrexham | National League |
| Oct 4, 2016 | Wrexham 1-2 Lincoln | National League |
| Jan 23, 2016 | Wrexham 3-1 Lincoln | National League |
| Sep 5, 2015 | Lincoln 1-1 Wrexham | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Lincoln score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Wrexham score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Wrexham | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lincoln sit 22nd in Championship (0 points from 2 matches) and Wrexham sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 22 | Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Wrexham?
- The Footlab model makes Lincoln the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Wrexham.
- Where and when is Lincoln vs Wrexham played?
- Lincoln vs Wrexham is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.