Southampton vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Derby. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Derby?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (2,101 vs 1,890).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southampton vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 4F. Downes
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 27K. Matsuki
- 7Léo Scienza
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 3R. Manning
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 1Daniel Peretz
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Southampton wins, 4 draws, 0 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Southampton 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Jan 16, 2019 | Southampton 4-4 Derby | FA Cup |
| Jan 5, 2019 | Derby 2-2 Southampton | FA Cup |
| Feb 18, 2012 | Southampton 4-0 Derby | Championship |
| Oct 15, 2011 | Derby 1-1 Southampton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 7th in Championship (16 points from 10 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 16 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
A question about Southampton vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Derby.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Derby played?
- Southampton vs Derby is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.