Stoke City vs Birmingham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Birmingham wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stoke City vs Birmingham?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Stoke City (1,903) and Birmingham (2,000).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Stoke City vs Birmingham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Stoke City
3-4-3- 7J. McGlynn
- 11L. Cissé
- 13J. Devenny
- 2B. Johnson
- 8E. Galbraith
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 40M. Talovierov
- 1V. Johansson
Birmingham
4-2-3-1- 9A. Priske
- 24T. Iwata
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 4C. Klarer
- 5P. Neumann
- 20A. Cochrane
- 1J. Beadle
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Birmingham have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stoke City wins, 2 draws, 2 Birmingham wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Birmingham 1-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Stoke City 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Stoke City 1-2 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Birmingham 1-3 Stoke City | Championship |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Birmingham 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Stoke City 1-2 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Stoke City on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stoke City score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Birmingham score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Birmingham | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stoke City sit 8th in Championship (16 points from 10 matches) and Birmingham sit 4th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 17 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
A question about Stoke City vs Birmingham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Birmingham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Birmingham the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Stoke City vs Birmingham played?
- Stoke City vs Birmingham is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at bet365 Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.