Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Kyiv the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Lokomotiv Kyiv (1,649) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Kyiv have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chernihiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Kyiv score 1.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 1.8 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Kyiv sit 12th in Persha Liga (3 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv Kyiv the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on August 28, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.