Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Khimki, Khimki
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Rodina Moskva (1,906) and Lokomotiv (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lokomotiv have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Rodina Moskva win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lokomotiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Lokomotiv 0-0 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Lokomotiv 0-1 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Lokomotiv 2-1 Rodina Moskva | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv vs Rodina Moskva on Jun 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva sit 13th in Premier League (4 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv sit 14th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv played?
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Khimki, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.