Ludogorets III vs Septemvri Tervel: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sporten tsentar Ludogorets, Razgrad
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Septemvri Tervel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ludogorets III vs Septemvri Tervel?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Ludogorets III (1,757) and Septemvri Tervel (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ludogorets III have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Septemvri Tervel have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cherno more II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ludogorets III win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Septemvri Tervel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel 0-1 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Ludogorets III 1-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Septemvri Tervel 1-1 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Ludogorets III 2-0 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| May 8, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 1-0 Ludogorets III | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Ludogorets III 6-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Tervel vs Ludogorets III on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ludogorets III score 3.2 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets III | 3.2 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ludogorets III sit 5th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Tervel sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ludogorets III | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ludogorets III vs Septemvri Tervel?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets III the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Septemvri Tervel.
- Where and when is Ludogorets III vs Septemvri Tervel played?
- Ludogorets III vs Septemvri Tervel is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.