Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Olympic Varna the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Botev Novi Pazar. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar?
Olympic Varna starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,407 vs 1,286).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympic Varna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Botev Novi Pazar have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(away) | 4-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 0-8 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 6-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Fratria II(away) | 2-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Riltzi(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Olympic Varna win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Botev Novi Pazar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar 2-1 Olympic Varna | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Olympic Varna 3-0 Botev Novi Pazar | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Botev Novi Pazar vs Olympic Varna on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olympic Varna score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Botev Novi Pazar score 1.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic Varna | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Botev Novi Pazar | 1.7 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympic Varna sit 4th in Third League - Northeast (3 points from 1 matches) and Botev Novi Pazar sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Botev Novi Pazar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Olympic Varna | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar?
- The Footlab model makes Olympic Varna the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Botev Novi Pazar.
- Where and when is Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar played?
- Olympic Varna vs Botev Novi Pazar is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.