Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Donchevo, Donchevo
The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Dorostol. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol?
Ustrem Donchevo starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,441 vs 1,285).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ustrem Donchevo have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Dorostol have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 0-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Olympic Varna(away) | 2-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 9, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-9 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ustrem Donchevo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Dorostol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 4-1 Dorostol | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Dorostol 1-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2025 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-1 Dorostol | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Dorostol 0-1 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| May 26, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 4-3 Dorostol | Third League - Northeast |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Dorostol 2-0 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dorostol score 0.7 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Dorostol | 0.7 | 3.0 | 1 | 5/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Dorostol sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Dorostol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol?
- The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Dorostol.
- Where and when is Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol played?
- Ustrem Donchevo vs Dorostol is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Donchevo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.