Lyon vs Fenerbahçe: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeaguePlay-offsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Fenerbahçe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Lyon (2,118) and Fenerbahçe (2,203).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lyon have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Fenerbahçe have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lyon win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Fenerbahçe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon | UEFA Champions League |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 0-0 Lyon | UEFA Europa League |
How many goals should we expect?
Lyon score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fenerbahçe score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Fenerbahçe | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Fenerbahçe?
- The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Fenerbahçe.
- Where and when is Lyon vs Fenerbahçe played?
- Lyon vs Fenerbahçe is played on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.