Macara vs Independiente del Valle: prediction and stats
Liga ProChampionship Group - 3Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Bellavista de Ambato, Ambato
The Footlab AI model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Macara. The most likely score is 1-1. If Independiente del Valle wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Independiente del Valle starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (2,022 vs 1,864).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Macara
4-2-3-1- 9F. Posse
- 16J. Cazares
- 28A. Campana
- 20M. Viera
- 15M. Tello
- 5J. Estacio
- 14J. Marrufo
- 25J. Bolaños
- 27J. Mohor
- 4J. Jiménez
- 1R. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1- 9C. González
- 11M. Perelló
- 10J. Sornoza
- 31Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
- 6J. Alcívar
- 28H. Quintana
- 5R. Schunke
- 14M. Carabajal
- 13Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
- 19L. Loor
- 1A. Quintana
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macara have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Independiente del Valle have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(away) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aucas(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Emelec(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 1-3 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Manta FC(home) | 4-3 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aucas(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gualaceo SC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Ecuador |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Libertad(away) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 0-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Macara wins, 1 draw, 5 Independiente del Valle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Independiente del Valle 3-1 Macara | Liga Pro |
| May 16, 2026 | Macara 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Macara 1-2 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 1-1 Macara | Liga Pro |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Independiente del Valle 7-0 Macara | Liga Pro |
| May 26, 2024 | Macara 0-1 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Independiente del Valle vs Macara on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macara score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Independiente del Valle score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Independiente del Valle | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macara sit 2nd in Liga Pro (57 points from 32 matches) and Independiente del Valle sit 1st (77 points from 31 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 77 |
| 2 | Macara | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 57 |
A question about Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macara vs Independiente del Valle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Macara.
- Where and when is Macara vs Independiente del Valle played?
- Macara vs Independiente del Valle is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.