Independiente del Valle vs Macara: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Macara. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Macara?
Independiente del Valle starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (2,010 vs 1,827).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente del Valle have 15 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Macara have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leones del Norte(away) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Delfin SC(home) | 3-2 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(home) | 1-0 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Universidad Catolica(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barcelona SC(away) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Independiente del Valle win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Macara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Macara 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Macara 1-2 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Independiente del Valle 1-1 Macara | Liga Pro |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Independiente del Valle 7-0 Macara | Liga Pro |
| May 26, 2024 | Macara 0-1 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Independiente del Valle 1-0 Macara | Liga Pro |
Last archived meeting: Macara vs Independiente del Valle on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente del Valle score 2.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Macara score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 2.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Macara | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente del Valle sit 1st in Liga Pro (67 points from 26 matches) and Macara sit 4th (42 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 26 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 64 | 26 | 67 |
| 4 | Macara | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 25 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente del Valle vs Macara?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Macara.
- Where and when is Independiente del Valle vs Macara played?
- Independiente del Valle vs Macara is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.