Perth Glory vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 10:45 AM (UTC)HBF Park, Perth
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Perth Glory. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,882 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Perth Glory have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Melbourne City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lions(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 3-1 | A-League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Perth Glory win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Melbourne City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Perth Glory 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-3 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Melbourne City 4-0 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Perth Glory 0-5 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Perth Glory 5-4 Melbourne City | Australia Cup |
Last archived meeting: Perth Glory vs Melbourne City on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Perth Glory score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Perth Glory sit 10th in A-League (31 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne City sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Perth Glory vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Perth Glory.
- Where and when is Perth Glory vs Melbourne City played?
- Perth Glory vs Melbourne City is played on December 11, 2026 at 10:45 AM (UTC) at HBF Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.