Maceratese vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Helvia Recina, Macerata
The Footlab AI model makes Maceratese the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maceratese wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,876 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maceratese vs Fossombrone?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Maceratese (1,632) and Fossombrone (1,690).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maceratese vs Fossombrone
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maceratese
4-3-3- 9Matteo Colombi
- 16Federico Palmieri
- 15D. Allegretti
- 8Alberto Quadri
- 7L. De Grazia
- 10Gianluca Turchetta
- 14Christian Ventola
- 5D. Marchetti
- 6Filippo Gattari
- 4A. Bondioli
- 22F. Forte
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 10:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maceratese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Fossombrone have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Notaresco(away) | 2-5 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Foligno Calcio(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santegidiese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pietralunga(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Maceratese wins, 1 draw, 1 Fossombrone win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fossombrone 0-0 Maceratese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Maceratese 1-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Fossombrone vs Maceratese on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maceratese score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maceratese | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Fossombrone | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maceratese sit 15th in Serie D - Girone F (7 points from 8 matches) and Fossombrone sit 8th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| 15 | Maceratese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 7 |
A question about Maceratese vs Fossombrone?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maceratese vs Fossombrone?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maceratese the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Maceratese vs Fossombrone played?
- Maceratese vs Fossombrone is played on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Helvia Recina, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.