Maceratese vs Fossombrone: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Helvia Recina, Macerata
The Footlab model makes Maceratese the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maceratese vs Fossombrone?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Maceratese (1,643) and Fossombrone (1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maceratese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Fossombrone have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Chieti(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Giulianova(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cesena(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Maceratese win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fossombrone win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Fossombrone 0-0 Maceratese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Maceratese 1-2 Fossombrone | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Fossombrone vs Maceratese on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maceratese score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fossombrone score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maceratese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Fossombrone | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maceratese sit 12th in Serie D - Girone F (38 points from 34 matches) and Fossombrone sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 34 | 44 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43 | 49 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maceratese vs Fossombrone?
- The Footlab model makes Maceratese the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Fossombrone.
- Where and when is Maceratese vs Fossombrone played?
- Maceratese vs Fossombrone is played on May 2, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Helvia Recina, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.