Maceratese vs Vigor Senigallia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Helvia Recina, Macerata
The Footlab model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Maceratese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maceratese vs Vigor Senigallia?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Maceratese (1,644) and Vigor Senigallia (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maceratese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Vigor Senigallia have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Chieti(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Giulianova(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Recanatese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Unipomezia(away) | 3-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Chieti(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Castelfidardo Calcio(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Recanatese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Maceratese win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Vigor Senigallia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia 1-0 Maceratese | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Maceratese 0-1 Vigor Senigallia | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Vigor Senigallia vs Maceratese on Jan 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Maceratese score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vigor Senigallia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maceratese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Vigor Senigallia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maceratese sit 12th in Serie D - Girone F (38 points from 34 matches) and Vigor Senigallia sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45 | 40 | 49 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43 | 49 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maceratese vs Vigor Senigallia?
- The Footlab model makes Vigor Senigallia the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Maceratese.
- Where and when is Maceratese vs Vigor Senigallia played?
- Maceratese vs Vigor Senigallia is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Helvia Recina, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.