Match

Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka: prediction and stats

Emperor Cup2nd RoundKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo

Machida ZelviaGrulla Morioka

The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Grulla Morioka. The most likely score is 3-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka?

Machida Zelvia is a heavy favourite: 2,109 Elo points against 1,631 — a 478-point gap.

Machida Zelvia win87 %
Draw9 %
Grulla Morioka win4 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Grulla Morioka have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Machida Zelvia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Urawa(home)3-1J1 League
Aug 15, 2026JEF United Chiba(away)4-0J1 League
Aug 8, 2026FC Tokyo(away)5-1J1 League
Jul 18, 2026Fujieda MYFC(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Grulla Morioka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 19, 2026Sapporo University(home)1-0Emperor Cup
Nov 23, 2025YSCC(away)3-2Japan Football League
Nov 16, 2025Criacao Shinjuku(home)1-3Japan Football League
Nov 9, 2025Suzuka Unlimited(away)2-0Japan Football League
Nov 1, 2025Urayasu(home)1-1Japan Football League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Grulla Morioka win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 23, 2022Grulla Morioka 1-3 Machida ZelviaJ2 League
Jun 1, 2022Machida Zelvia 1-3 Grulla MoriokaEmperor Cup
Feb 27, 2022Machida Zelvia 1-0 Grulla MoriokaJ2 League
Aug 30, 2015Grulla Morioka 0-3 Machida ZelviaEmperor Cup

Last archived meeting: Grulla Morioka vs Machida Zelvia on Jul 23, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Grulla Morioka score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Machida Zelvia1.90.768/157/15
Grulla Morioka1.61.9311/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka?
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 87%, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Grulla Morioka.
Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka played?
Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka is played on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the Emperor Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Machida Zelvia and Grulla Morioka

Ready to know everything about football?