Match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV: prediction and stats

Emperor Cup2nd RoundKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima

Sanfrecce HiroshimaOkinawa SV

The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Okinawa SV. The most likely score is 3-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima is a heavy favourite: 2,089 Elo points against 1,680 — a 409-point gap.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win86 %
Draw10 %
Okinawa SV win4 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Okinawa SV have 4, 2 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Kawasaki Frontale(home)1-1J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Urawa(away)4-1J1 League
Aug 8, 2026JEF United Chiba(home)3-0J1 League
Jul 28, 2026Verspah Oita(home)4-0Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026Sturm Graz(away)1-5Friendlies Clubs
Okinawa SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 19, 2026Kitakyushu(away)2-1Emperor Cup
Jan 16, 2026Kyoto Sanga(home)1-6Friendlies Clubs
Nov 23, 2025Veertien Mie(away)0-6Japan Football League
Nov 16, 2025TIAMO Hirakata(home)0-3Japan Football League
Nov 9, 2025Honda Lock(home)1-2Japan Football League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Okinawa SV win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 3, 2019Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Okinawa SVEmperor Cup

Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV on Jul 3, 2019

How many goals should we expect?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Okinawa SV score 1.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.11.068/159/15
Okinawa SV1.32.137/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV?
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Okinawa SV.
Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV played?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa SV is played on August 26, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the Emperor Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Okinawa SV

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