Maia Lidador vs Maria da Fonte: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Maia Lidador the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maia Lidador vs Maria da Fonte?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Maia Lidador (1,761) and Maria da Fonte (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Maia Lidador have 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Maria da Fonte have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Brito(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Maia Lidador score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 3; Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia Lidador | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maia Lidador sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (0 points from 2 matches) and Maria da Fonte sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Maia Lidador | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maia Lidador vs Maria da Fonte?
- The Footlab model makes Maia Lidador the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Maia Lidador vs Maria da Fonte played?
- Maia Lidador vs Maria da Fonte is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.