Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moinhos Novos, Póvoa de Lanhoso
The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense?
Tirsense starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,883 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maria da Fonte have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Tirsense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Celoricense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vinhais(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Brito(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Arouca(home) | 0-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Chaves II(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Maria da Fonte win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Tirsense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | Maria da Fonte 2-1 Tirsense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Tirsense 2-0 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense on Feb 26, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Maria da Fonte score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tirsense score 1.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria da Fonte | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Tirsense | 1.1 | 0.6 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maria da Fonte sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (3 points from 2 matches) and Tirsense sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tirsense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Maria da Fonte | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense?
- The Footlab model makes Tirsense the favourite at 39%, against 32% for a draw and 29% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense played?
- Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moinhos Novos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.