Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moinhos Novos, Póvoa de Lanhoso
The Footlab AI model makes Tirsense the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Maria da Fonte. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tirsense wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,028 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense?
Tirsense starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,908 vs 1,731).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maria da Fonte
4-3-3- 27João Antunes
- 10Henrique Vieira
- 70João Araújo
- 6Davide Caseiro
- AAndré Faria
- 8Dino Fernandes
- 21Cabreira
- 24Leandro Albano
- 83Wilson Oliveira
- 5Rafael Pereira
- 1Paulo Jorge
Tirsense
Not enough data to predict the Tirsense lineup.
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 01:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maria da Fonte have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats; Tirsense have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | SC Braga B(home) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 3-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mafra(away) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Maria da Fonte win, 0 draws, 1 Tirsense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | Maria da Fonte 2-1 Tirsense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Tirsense 2-0 Maria da Fonte | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
Last archived meeting: Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense on Feb 26, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Maria da Fonte score 0.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tirsense score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maria da Fonte | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Tirsense | 1.3 | 0.9 | 9 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maria da Fonte sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 6 matches) and Tirsense sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tirsense | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 13 | Maria da Fonte | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tirsense the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Maria da Fonte.
- Where and when is Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense played?
- Maria da Fonte vs Tirsense is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moinhos Novos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.