Real Sociedad vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,576 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Malaga?
On Elo ratings, Real Sociedad has 2,113 points and Malaga 2,027.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 24L. Sučić
- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 21Y. Herrera
- 18Carlos Soler
- 7Barrenetxea
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 2J. Aramburu
- 1Álex Remiro
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Real Sociedad wins, 2 draws, 2 Malaga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024 | Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Apr 22, 2018 | Malaga 2-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Dec 10, 2017 | Real Sociedad 0-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| May 14, 2017 | Real Sociedad 2-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2017 | Malaga 0-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Feb 27, 2016 | Real Sociedad 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Real Sociedad on Jan 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 6th in La Liga (13 points from 8 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Real Sociedad vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Malaga played?
- Real Sociedad vs Malaga is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.