Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm: prediction and stats
AllsvenskanRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Eleda Stadion, Malmö
The Footlab model makes Malmo FF the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for AIK Stockholm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Malmo FF (1,867) and AIK Stockholm (1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malmo FF have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; AIK Stockholm have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gais(away) | 1-0 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Degerfors IF(home) | 1-2 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 2, 2026 | IF Brommapojkarna(away) | 2-1 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 26, 2026 | IF Elfsborg(home) | 1-2 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Kalmar FF(away) | 2-2 | Allsvenskan |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Piteå(away) | 3-0 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Djurgardens IF(away) | 3-1 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orgryte IS(away) | 4-3 | Allsvenskan |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orgryte IS(home) | 0-3 | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 27, 2026 | BK Hacken(away) | 0-0 | Allsvenskan |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malmo FF win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 AIK Stockholm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
| May 22, 2025 | Malmo FF 0-0 AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| Apr 14, 2025 | AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
| Sep 15, 2024 | AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| Jul 23, 2023 | AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
Last archived meeting: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Malmo FF score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; AIK Stockholm score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 1.9 | 1.8 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| AIK Stockholm | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malmo FF sit 7th in Allsvenskan (26 points from 17 matches) and AIK Stockholm sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AIK Stockholm | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
- The Footlab model makes Malmo FF the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for AIK Stockholm.
- Where and when is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm played?
- Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm is played on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Eleda Stadion, in the Allsvenskan.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.